My Cryptocurrency Journey (2/11/17)

Initial Investment:

  • Augmentors ICO (DTB - DataBits): 13000 DTB @ 0.00007692307 BTC

BTC (Bitcoin): Bullish until ETF ruling. Predictable pump/dump depending on ruling. The natural curve for this regardless is up. I don't think BTC is going away and find it hard to believe that it won't continue to grow well into the future. After disasters plagued BTC in the early showings (overvaluation followed by heavy market correction, Mt. Gox scandal, and stigma with darknet association), confidence in the market has returned to a pretty stable position marked by steady growth since 2015. Do I think BTC is currently overvalued? A little bit - but only by around ~10% or so. If an ETF is approved, then all thoughts go out the window though. Lately, the market has proved resilient to global news and events (PBoC), and the diversity of market forces is what makes it so promising from here on out too. China, Japan, and US are represented all significantly now instead earlier where China was basically all of the volume. Asia still dominates, but 20-30% volume for USD is not bad by any means. The West is interested and growing hungry (ETF?). BTC-Volume

ETH (Etherium): The idea of smart contracts has taken off pretty well and it seems like early hiccups (compromised + fork to ETH + ETC) aren't going to hinder ETH's growth against BTC in near future evidenced by recent pump. Recently a good hedge against BTC; though I think relative to BTC it should grow in the short term. Long-term, the natural inflation principles of ETH will make it outpace BTC - especially since BTC is 75% mined and ETH will have no cap. ETH does have mechanisms to reduce inflation over time though, so there should never be over-inflation. In the short, going 50/50 in BTC & ETH balances big movements in your USD value. Here's some proof where recently BTC lost 10% value to USD, but ETH rose around 10% in response to the BTC price...meaning holding ETH makes up for loses in BTC/USD and vice versa. The best part? If you can act quickly, you can ride the ETH uptick, trade it back for BTC when you think the trends are reversing, and ride BTC uptick. Here are some poloniex charts I marked up and aligned on the same scales so it is easy to reference the significant positions: ETH-BTC

ZEC (Zcash): Another promising crypto offering even more anonymity than BTC does. Similar to Monero, but doesn't have quite as much exposure yet. Private addresses and more user friendly applications should prime this for a take off sometime in the near future after it bottoms out - I think there is enough space for coins like this and demand in the darknet isn't going to go away anytime soon. Something tells me diversity in anonymous coins is actually a good thing. Currently feels price suppressed by miners who want to keep mining a ton of cheap coins. Acquisition spikes becoming more frequent as it keeps testing floor ~0.032 - ~0.033 BTC. Downtrend should continue though as we keep floor hunting. Some news and releases will help this coin out a lot. The market cap also has steadily been increasing over time, which means demand is there. And considering the price has basically only plummeted over the long and supply is still fairly small, I bet there are some big holders who will be incentivized to try to get this market to pump. I think currently undervalued, but still falling for now.

DTB (DataBits): Good ICO with small coin supply. Exactly same structure as Beyond the Void ICO which had ~10x returns from floor pricing. Was on a South African Shark Tank episode and has investment backing from CEO of Gyft (Vinny Lingham) which gives it legitimacy. Even if ICO finishes @ goal, probably see potential 5-7x multiplier. Counterparty asset. Buy floor if shakeout happens. Not a long-term play by any means, but could be a good flip. Purely a financial investment and if the game is successful, then all the better. Blockchain games are the current fad apparently and honestly it's kinda neat >_>:

Notable Mentions:

ETC (Etherium Classic): Was the original ETH until it forked. Looking to make a comeback. Currently priced 11x lower than ETC (0.1109 ETC / ETH). Parity one day?

QTUM (Quantum): ICO launches March 1. Great tech, great team, great backing. Tons of hype & public exposure already. Strategy: Buy small into ICO just in case of instant pump, otherwise buy the floor after initial dump to average out buy price and wait for pump later.

FCT (Factom): Tim Draper just lead series A $4.2M in this coin. Tons of potential. Just got pumped, but still small market cap. Might dump and pump or just pump after some time has passed.

MAID (Maidcoin): Notable steady growth. "Internet 2.0". Wary of things like the 'next internet,' but solid backing and growth. Can't hate steady growth. Also, some of the features like SSO for everything and built-in network encryption are extremely desirable in the next version of the internet where security layers are abstracted away from the user.

UBIQ (formerly Jumbucks): Just entered Bittrex and is dumping to floor. Could be a great coin that skyrockets. Uses 100% PoS system instead of PoW. Similar to what I used to like about Peercoin (PPC). Has been around for a while as Jumbucks before and just rebranded as Ubiq and swapped to the Ethereum blockchain. Presenting at AIToronto in March. If it also enters Poloniex, could be a great investment.

General Advice (mostly for myself):
  • Don't buy shitcoins post-pump
  • Don't trade margins (until bankroll)
  • Once shitcoin pumps, GTFO
  • Hedge with BTC/ETH
  • Don't trade sideways
  • Don't overtrade.